Presidential Election 2016
Nov. 3rd, 2020 04:21 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
luckykaaIt's the US presidential election, and I'm getting pretty anxious.
Granted, I personally am not going to suffer if Trump gets another 4 years, but I'm, worried that a lot of people will. More importantly, I really want the world to be moving away from the sort of viewpoint Trump represents. While Joe Biden is not a lot better, I at least get the impression he's a genuine person who wants to do what's right. He's a bit out of touch perhaps but not completely clueless. Nothing interesting will happen in the next 4 years if he does but I don't want anything interesting to happen.
I find myself obsessed with the polling numbers. This is self destructive behaviour.
Pundits love to use polls and other methods to predict what will and will not happen. One expert uses a set of parameters to guess. Not sure if that will always work; It could easily be data dredging.
Most pundits like to throw in references to how wrong previous polls were, and use this to justify why their own take on it will be the right one. The problem is, all this is educated guesswork. You can only tell so much from a poll. They can't predict whether the person asked will vote, or whether they're even being honest. There's no way to correct perfectly for other factors. Ultimately this is soothsaying.
So here's what I hope will happen:
Most of the states leaning towards Biden will do so. This is likely to happen.
Texas turns blue. Not impossible, and would be quite a result.
Most of all, I want to see a decisive win. One that can't be overturned by the Supreme court.
Getting Trump out of the Whitehouse will give me a lot of hope for 2021 being better than 2020.
Granted, I personally am not going to suffer if Trump gets another 4 years, but I'm, worried that a lot of people will. More importantly, I really want the world to be moving away from the sort of viewpoint Trump represents. While Joe Biden is not a lot better, I at least get the impression he's a genuine person who wants to do what's right. He's a bit out of touch perhaps but not completely clueless. Nothing interesting will happen in the next 4 years if he does but I don't want anything interesting to happen.
I find myself obsessed with the polling numbers. This is self destructive behaviour.
Pundits love to use polls and other methods to predict what will and will not happen. One expert uses a set of parameters to guess. Not sure if that will always work; It could easily be data dredging.
Most pundits like to throw in references to how wrong previous polls were, and use this to justify why their own take on it will be the right one. The problem is, all this is educated guesswork. You can only tell so much from a poll. They can't predict whether the person asked will vote, or whether they're even being honest. There's no way to correct perfectly for other factors. Ultimately this is soothsaying.
So here's what I hope will happen:
Most of the states leaning towards Biden will do so. This is likely to happen.
Texas turns blue. Not impossible, and would be quite a result.
Most of all, I want to see a decisive win. One that can't be overturned by the Supreme court.
Getting Trump out of the Whitehouse will give me a lot of hope for 2021 being better than 2020.
